Sunday, August 28, 2011

An initial investment in Lending Club

I've been a Prosper lender for years but I've been thinking about branching out to lending on Lending Club, as well. Since I've been looking at words which have performed poorly on Prosper I wanted to extend that search to Lending Club, as well.

What follows is Lending Club data taken from about two months ago. For D, E, F and G loans we can see that the words used seem to correlate with the loans similarly on both sites:

DescriptionTotal LoansPercent GoodPercent BadFully PaidCurrentCharged OffDefault
D,E,F,G All884081.1%9.4%15.5%65.6%7.5%.1%
D,E,F,G With 'need'145577.9%16.2%21.6%56.3%13.8%.1%
D,E,F,G With 'help'142280.3%11.3%18.9%61.4%9.3%.4%
D,E,F,G With 'chance'8483.3%7.1%22.6%60.7%6%0%
D,E,F,G With 'behind'6578.5%16.9%18.5%60%15.4%0%
D,E,F,G With 'payday'1241.7%58.3%25%16.7%58.3%0%

'Need', 'help', 'behind', and 'payday' all have fewer Good loans (defined as 'Fully Paid' and 'Current') and more Bad loans (defined as 'Charged Off', 'Default', and 'Late (31-120 days)'). The only exception in the words I searched here is for the word 'Chance' which actually performed better than the average loan. (This could be true for Prosper, as well, and is worth further investigation.)

When taken as a group, the four bad words yield the following results:

DescriptionTotal LoansPercent GoodPercent BadFully PaidCurrentCharged OffDefault
D,E,F,G All884081.1%9.4%15.5%65.6%7.5%.1%
D,E,F,G without 'help', 'behind', 'need', 'payday'643681.8%7.8%13.8%68%6%.1%

So, as I start to invest, I expect that I'll only be investing in loans where the title and description does not have any of these words.

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